Multi-watershed nonpoint source pollution management through coupling Bayesian-based simulation and mechanism-based effluent trading optimization

Multiple rivers flowing into the same bay can be correlated in water quality management and together determine environmental status of bay. Nonpoint source pollution for multi-watershed aiming to alleviate contamination as well yield considerable economic benefits under additional challenges. In this study, a Bayesian simulation-based effluent trading designing model (BS-METM) is established nonpoint through incorporating techniques simulation, uncertainty analysis with inference, optimal design trading, mechanism analysis. BS-METM capable reflecting parameter uncertainties nutrient disclosing detailed schemes impact vital factors, identifying mechanisms revealing interaction among processes multiple watersheds. applied real case adjacent coastal watersheds (i.e. Daguhe Moshuihe watersheds), which are identified major sources total phosphorus ammonia nitrogen loadings Jiaozhou Bay, China. Effluent optimization mechanisms, including intra-watershed cross-watershed non-trading, conducted. The optimized industry scales obtained. effects factors on process allowance-violation risk level availability level) investigated. interactions between also analyzed. It proved that non-trading would recommended low medium high level. results provide solid scientific basis effective sustainable development region.